On Tuesday afternoon, a Russian-built Ilyushin Il-96-300, from the Russian government鈥檚 fleet of aircrafts, landed at Dulles International Airport in Northern Virginia.
It was not an unprecedented event, but some of the related details don鈥檛 add up.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the plane 鈥渨ill take out Russian diplomats who were ordered by the U.S. authorities to leave the country in connection with the completion of a three-year stay.鈥�
But questions arose about the size and type of plane, allegedly sent to retrieve only diplomats.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, when asked about it on Tuesday, responded, 鈥淚鈥檓 not going to speak to the exact numbers. I鈥檒l let the Russian Federation decide whether they want to speak to the number of what are, of course, their diplomats. I鈥檇 say diplomatic personnel routinely rotate in and out of assignments. That鈥檚 what happened here.鈥�
But is that really what鈥檚 happening? A former covert U.S. intelligence operative is suspicious.
鈥淣ormally, if you’re just sending diplomats out of the country, like Russian diplomats, you just put them on a commercial plane, with whatever connection they need to get to Moscow,鈥� said Robert Baer, a retired CIA field operative.
Baer, with deep knowledge of Russian intelligence and military activities, suspects that this movement is not routine at all. The 15-year-old plane, registered as and operating with flight number , is indeed capable of carrying hundreds of people.
But Baer said it鈥檚 also the perfect vessel for a large quantity of spy equipment: 鈥淚f you’re moving out intercept equipment, computers, hard drives, blade servers, all that stuff, you’d ask for a Russian government airplane.”
It鈥檚 unclear who or what cargo will make the return flight to Russia, but Miller said the U.S. expects in-kind treatment, which adds to the intrigue.
鈥淚n exchange for granting these courtesies, we expect Russia to maintain open transport for our diplomats and cargo to our embassy in Moscow,鈥� Miller said.
Suspicions about the purpose of the plane are directly linked to the aborted Wagner rebellion on June 23 against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private army, the mutiny has sparked fear, according to sources inside Russia, that generals may have planned to join Prigozhin in an attempt topple Putin.
Much of what triggered the now bitter break-up between Putin and Prigozhin is unknown. The failure of the Russian military to adequately supply his army in Ukraine, and an alleged direct Russian military attack on his fighters, are the reasons Prigozhin gave.
But Estonian and longtime Russia-watcher, Eeva Eek-Pajuste, director of the Lennart Meri Conference, believes the true cause is something much more profound: 鈥淢ost probably, both Putin and Prigozhin consider the other to have broken the terms of contracts between them.鈥�
Eek-Pajuste said Prigozhin had been given two choices.
鈥淟et the remnants of his forces be killed by Ukrainians, with the silent approval of the Russian army, who detest Wagner; or, let them to be dispersed into the Russian army, to be sent to the nastiest places, to be killed by Ukrainians. So, he was desperate and took desperate action, to try to fight out of a hopeless situation.鈥�
As a result, Prigozhin is now effectively exiled to Belarus. It鈥檚 possible punishment from Putin for openly challenging him, and something that usually leads to execution 鈥� consorting with the enemy.
Baer believes the Kremlin and its intelligence apparatus are convinced the U.S. was involved and tried to help Prigozhin: “Putin鈥檚 got a military he can’t be sure of and he’s conspiratorial and he does believe that the United States is behind this.”
Baer believes it could be the beginning of an unprecedented rough patch between the two nations and perhaps Putin鈥檚 downfall.
鈥淚 think the situation is so bad in Russia that (Putin’s) days are numbered. You simply don’t take a big swipe at his authority, like a column moving on Moscow and getting to within five or six hours (of the city), and any good come out of it.鈥�
Eek-Pajuste said Putin has a lot at stake and needs to limit the damage: 鈥淚f Putin loses his tough guy image, and it鈥檚 very shaky now, how much leverage does he have?鈥�
The flight to D.C. four days after Putin nearly lost power suggests, to some, that it didn鈥檛 just come here to pick up people, but perhaps to pick up some very sensitive intelligence equipment before it鈥檚 too late.
