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With four weeks to go before Virginia voters decide whether to redraw the state鈥檚 congressional map, early voting data is painting a familiar but uneasy picture for Democrats: they hold a commanding financial edge, but reliably Republican districts are showing up strong at the polls.
More than 354,000 ballots had been cast statewide as of Monday, according to by the Virginia Public Access Project, a steady acceleration since early voting and continues through April 18.
The pace marks a sharp increase from the opening days of voting, when roughly had been cast by March 10 鈥� a sign that engagement is picking up as the April 21 referendum draws closer.
But beneath those topline numbers, a deeper divide is emerging.
Early participation varies widely by region, with Republican-leaning areas generally posting higher turnout rates so far.
In some GOP strongholds, between 10 and 15% of registered voters have already cast ballots, outpacing many Democratic-leaning areas, particularly in Northern Virginia, where early voting infrastructure tends to ramp up later in the cycle.
At the congressional district level, the same pattern holds. Districts currently represented by Republicans are seeing stronger early turnout than those held by Democrats 鈥� an early signal of partisan intensity around that could reshape Virginia鈥檚 congressional delegation ahead of the 2026 midterms.
鈥淚 think the Democrats have to be worried,鈥� longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said. 鈥淭hey have a financial advantage, but the challenge the Democrats have here is that they don鈥檛 really have a face for their campaign.鈥�
Local data underscores those disparities even more clearly.
Across Virginia, many of the highest-turnout jurisdictions so far are smaller, Republican-leaning counties in central and western parts of the state.
Mathews County, a strongly Republican-leaning locality on the Middle Peninsula where GOP candidates consistently get more than 60% of the vote in local, statewide and federal elections, has posted the highest early voting rate statewide, with roughly 16% of registered voters already casting ballots as of Monday.
Similar patterns are visible elsewhere, where GOP-leaning counties are exceeding statewide averages and outpacing more urban, Democratic-leaning jurisdictions.
By contrast, large Democratic strongholds 鈥� including Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties 鈥� have reported significantly lower early voting rates in the first weeks of balloting, often well under 5% of registered voters.
Taken together, the early returns suggest Republican-leaning areas are currently driving turnout, both in raw participation and as a share of registered voters, while Democratic-leaning regions have been slower to engage.
Democrats dominate fundraising, but lack a clear messenger
Holsworth said that while Democrats have built a well-funded operation, they lack a central, visible figure to rally voters.
鈥淲ho鈥檚 the face of the Democratic redistricting here that鈥檚 out there campaigning for it every day?鈥� he asked. 鈥淭hey have an argument, but they don鈥檛 have a face for their argument who is the absolute champion.鈥�
That dynamic is unfolding even as Democrats dominate the money race. Millions of dollars from national sources have flowed into pro-referendum efforts.
, a progressive nonprofit, has n over the past six weeks to , the most visible pro-redistricting group. The organization also received a $5 million donation from the , a nonprofit affiliated with the network founded by Hungarian-American billionaire and philanthropist George Soros.
The Soros-linked contribution has angered Republicans, who have seized on it in their social media messaging.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 want any more Steve Descanos and Ramin Fatehis endangering our communities,鈥� Del. Wren Williams, R-Patrick, said , referencing two Virginia Democratic local prosecutors whose campaigns Soros supported.
Holsworth downplayed the political impact of the funding source itself.
鈥淗e鈥檚 funded some Democratic commonwealth鈥檚 attorney races that have been fairly successful, at least in the location,鈥� Holsworth said of Soros. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 think the people who are voting in this are looking at how it鈥檚 being funded, for the most part.鈥�
Instead, he said, the core challenge for Democrats remains turnout and persuasion.
鈥淚 think that the challenge the Democrats have is they have to mobilize their base, and they have to run halfway decently with independents here,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey certainly have a chance of winning.鈥�
Spanberger鈥檚 shift and national context
That absence has stood in contrast to similar efforts in other states.
鈥淭he distinction with California is twofold. One, California is more Democratic, but secondly, California has an active, energetic champion for this,鈥� Holsworth said, referring to the state鈥檚 governor, Gavin Newsom, who has been a de-factor spokesman of the there.
While Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has voiced support for the amendment and backed it up by marking her referendum ballot 鈥測es鈥� last week, Holsworth said she has not taken on the same high-profile role.
鈥淕overnor Spanberger said she supports it and has become more supportive, but she鈥檚 not out there putting her political capital on the line for it every day,鈥� he said.
Spanberger鈥檚 view on the issue has evolved.
On the campaign trail last August, she said to pursue redistricting. But after casting an early 鈥測es鈥� vote in Henrico County on Friday 鈥� inviting the media to cover the moment 鈥� she framed her support as a response to national developments.
鈥淚 continue to support the 2020 redistricting amendment that set up a bipartisan commission,鈥� Spanberger told reporters. 鈥淭his amendment is temporary and responsive to this moment in time where we have a president who has gone to other states seeking additional congressional seats.鈥�
The push for new maps follows a broader national movement that began after President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to strengthen their majority in the U.S. House. The effort and has since spread, prompting both red and blue states to revisit their maps.
As Republicans Virginia鈥檚 proposal as a partisan maneuver, Spanberger pushed back.
鈥淗ad they spoken in opposition to those efforts, I would perhaps take their level of consternation with a bit more seriousness,鈥� she said of similar moves in GOP-led states at Trump鈥檚 request.
Democrats have also leaned on national figures to help make their case.
Last week, the party sent mailers featuring former President Barack Obama urging Virginians to vote in favor of the amendment. Obama first the effort in a video released earlier this month after the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to go forward.
鈥淰irginia, we are counting on you,鈥� Obama is quoted on the mailer. 鈥淩epublicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. But you can stop them by voting yes by April 21.鈥�
Holsworth said that the ad could provide a boost, but not a substitute for local leadership.
鈥淭hat could help, but that鈥檚 not somebody who has been running in Virginia all the time,鈥� he said of the former president. 鈥淲ho is here, actively campaigning every day for the referendum out here? And that鈥檚 what you need in a campaign.鈥�
Opposition ramps up as GOP base shows energy
Opponents of the referendum have mounted an aggressive campaign of their own.
One group deployed and messaging to argue the proposal would weaken protections against partisan gerrymandering, sparking a heated political fight over both the substance of the amendment and the tone of the campaign.
Recent electoral results suggest Republican voters may be particularly energized.
In a special election earlier this month to fill the Virginia Beach-area seat of the late Del. Barry Knight, Republican Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith , outperforming Knight鈥檚 margins in his last two elections by about five points.
The result has fueled Republican optimism heading into the referendum.
鈥淚f we could get some funds, we can win this redistricting fight in Virginia and secure the midterms for @POTUS,鈥� Del. Karen Hamilton, R-Orange, .
Elections analyst Sam Shirazi said the referendum has become a motivating issue for GOP voters.
鈥淚 think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up and they鈥檙e upset about the redistricting referendum,鈥� Shirazi said on of his 鈥淔ederal Fallout鈥� podcast. 鈥淎t the end of the day anger is a very strong motivator to vote.鈥�
He added that the dynamic reflects a broader pattern in Virginia politics.
鈥淭his is kind of a common thing we see in Virginia,鈥� Shirazi said. 鈥淩epublicans are upset and perhaps they are starting to organize, whereas last year they were a little bit asleep.鈥�
Virginia Mercury reporter Charlotte Rene Woods contributed to this story.听
