WASHINGTON 鈥� I鈥檓 certainly not the first person to say this, but the Wizards are broken.
Yes, they鈥檝e qualified for the playoffs for the second straight season. Yes, they look to be no worse than the fifth seed, and could even snag home-court advantage for a round if a few things break their way.
The thing is, I鈥檝e seen this all before. I鈥檝e watched a team with a recent history of losing finally pick itself up, led by its young stars, and make the playoffs. I鈥檝e been excited, optimistic even, but ultimately disappointed when they bow out in the early rounds, left with an unnerving feeling that they still have somehow underachieved.
See, I鈥檓 a Warriors fan. Golden State was quite respectable under old head coach Mark Jackson, but far too often the offense would stall and sputter, handing their hopes and dreams off to Steph Curry 24 feet from the basket with an expiring shot clock. The defense would let itself get screened and switched into mismatches, relying too much on Klay Thompson to single-handedly shut down the opposing team鈥檚 best scorer.
At the end of a promising but disappointing 2013-14 campaign, the Warriors stunned the basketball world by firing the well-liked Jackson, who had overseen the team鈥檚 recent rise. In his place they hired Steve Kerr, a longtime NBA veteran, but one with zero head coaching experience.
Kerr brought a fluid, pass-heavy offense that spread the floor and maximized cuts to the rim and open shots from the three-point line. On the defensive end, he used his team鈥檚 tremendous versatility to switch on every screen, turning a mediocre unit into the best in the game. Days before the Wizards backed into the playoffs in the inferior East, the Warriors clinched the top seed and home-court advantage through the Western Conference playoffs, setting a new franchise wins record.
It鈥檚 not that Jackson wasn鈥檛 a good motivator. And he was well-loved by the players, especially Curry and Thompson. He just didn鈥檛 know how to best utilize them.
Now, with each passing, frustrated postgame news conference, it becomes clear that Randy Wittman doesn鈥檛 have the acumen to understand what鈥檚 wrong with his team.
鈥淲e鈥檝e gotta have guys step up, no question,鈥� , a 99-91 home loss to a Houston Rockets team missing a top defender and limited to fewer than 20 minutes from star center Dwight Howard. 鈥淲e just couldn鈥檛 get into any rhythm offensively, and focus offensively. We were running things that I鈥檝e never seen before.鈥�
Honestly, that was probably a decent strategy to improve the offense. , most of Wittman鈥檚 designed sets eat up the shot clock with no apparent end game other than a low-value midrange jumpshot. That鈥檚 how you end up with a shot chart like this one, as opposed to the economic, reasoned, well thought-out selections of the Rockets.
If only there was some simple way to explain why the Wizards are struggling …
鈥� Noah Frank (@NoahFrank蜜桃视频app)
鈥淲hen you play every team, you鈥檝e got to understand how you want to attack them from an offensive standpoint,鈥� Wittman said after the loss, sounding like he was discussing the opposite chart. 鈥淭hen you gotta go out on the floor and do that. We just kind of played offensively tonight.鈥�
Whatever they did, the Wizards didn鈥檛 play to their strengths. It doesn鈥檛 take an analytic genius to realize that John Wall is one of the best in the league with the ball in his hands, in a spot where he can use his speed and vision to create open shots for his teammates. But don鈥檛 take my word for it 鈥� just in the league.
And yet, the Wizards rank 28th of 30 NBA teams in total player points off drives (801), ahead of only the lowly Timberwolves and Knicks. They are one of only three teams to average fewer than 20 points per game off drives. Considering they also don鈥檛 rotate the ball well around the perimeter, that leaves them with a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities.
The problem is, Wittman鈥檚 offense doesn鈥檛 design three-point opportunities, and even if it did, his team isn鈥檛 very good at hitting them. Washington ranks 21st in effecting catch-and-shoot field goal percentage (49.6) thanks to all the poor percentage shots they jack up. They are one of only three playoff-bound teams to rank in the bottom third of the league in that category.
Washington has larger personnel issues as well, which is not Wittman鈥檚 fault. They need fewer one-dimensional players and more flexible ones, such as Otto Porter (or DeMarre Carroll, or Harrison Barnes, or Chandler Parsons), who can ease matchup issues on defense while creating them at the other end of the floor.
But that can鈥檛 be addressed until next season. In the meantime, with eight regular-season games left, what are the Wizards doing right now to improve their attack?
鈥淲ell, we鈥檙e going to go figure it out.鈥�
Ah.
That鈥檚 Wittman vocalizing what many of us have long feared聽鈥� that it鈥檚 too late to salvage this team this season. Maybe the Wizards win a playoff series, like they did last year. They could very well draw Toronto in the first round, a club that鈥檚 struggled to an 8-13 record since the All-Star break. Then again, the Raps swept the Wizards in the three-game regular season series. Maybe they get a slumping Bulls team that drops to fourth; maybe that would be worse.
The truth is, only two teams have a reasonable expectation of winning the Eastern Conference, and the Wizards are not among them (they are the Hawks and Cavaliers, if you鈥檙e interested and paying attention).
We鈥檝e covered this ground before, but the Wizards are just 10-22 against teams with winning records. They鈥檝e only beaten two teams above .500 since mid-January 鈥� a Memphis team sitting all of its stars and a Portland squad that nearly overcame a 25-point deficit 鈥� both at home.
It might be best for the long-term future of the club to bow out in the first round, just as the Warriors did a year ago. Maybe that will help make the call to hire a coach (and perhaps a general manager) who understands his players鈥� strengths and weaknesses an easier decision this offseason.
