Donald Trump is on a winning streak in Republican primaries, most recently endorsing Ken Paxton ahead of his over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.
The president bragged at his Cabinet meeting Wednesday that Paxton’s romp 鈥渨as a prelude鈥� for success in But Trump’s tightening grip on his party could make it harder to hold back Democratic advances as Republicans face a broader electorate that has soured on his and .
The risk is compounded, Republican operatives say, by in addressing Americans鈥� financial worries, which have been exacerbated by Trump’s trade roller coaster and his ongoing war against Iran. And the president gave them new material to worry about when he said concerns about November are playing no part in his negotiations with Tehran.
鈥淭hey thought they were going to out-wait me. You know, 鈥橶e鈥檒l out-wait him. He鈥檚 got the midterms,鈥� Trump said while surrounded by top administration officials. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 care about the midterms.鈥�
The only priority, he said, was keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, acknowledged the president鈥檚 approach is making things harder for his party.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a tough fall unless things dramatically change,鈥� Urban said.
He warned that Trump cannot afford a haphazard exit from Iran to resolve a conflict that has created a chokehold on global oil supplies and driven gas prices higher for Americans.
鈥淵ou do not want to give the Iranians a win just because of the midterms,鈥� he said.
Trump, meanwhile, offered no second thoughts about backing Paxton over Cornyn. Senate Republican leaders have feared that Paxton would be the more vulnerable nominee because of years of scandals, but the president insisted on social media that the Texas attorney general will 鈥渂ecome a fantastic, common sense Senator, one who is respected by all.鈥�
Still, Trump hinted he may be aware that Paxton will need an extra boost in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
鈥淚 will do some nice, big, beautiful rallies for Ken. Texas, this will be FUN!鈥� Trump wrote.
Trump brushes off economic troubles
Not only are prices higher after Trump鈥檚 tariffs and his Iran war, but the president has repeatedly described affordability concerns as a 鈥渉oax.鈥�
Trump has mused that increases in gas prices 鈥� up more than 50% in the U.S. since Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran 鈥� amount to 鈥減eanuts.鈥� He previously said he does not consider Americans鈥� personal finances 鈥渆ven a little bit鈥� when mulling his options on the war.
All of that comes as Trump badgers Congress to spend $1 billion on and allocate $1.8 billion to pay restitution to people who believe they were prosecuted for political purposes 鈥� potentially including those on Jan. 6, 2021.
It鈥檚 a cascade that Republicans in every battleground House district, Senate election or statewide contest will have to navigate in the fall.
鈥淵ou keep the House and Senate by having a message, by dealing with the issues voters are clearly complaining about,鈥� said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic. 鈥淭he administration has utterly failed to do this.鈥�
It has been more than two weeks since the Republican National Committee distributed talking points to surrogates that mention the economy, according to messaging documents reviewed by The Associated Press.
The only talking points sent out last week focused on defending Trump鈥檚 $1.8 billion 鈥渁nti-weaponization fund.鈥�
鈥淒emocrats and the fake-news media are deliberately ignoring the fact that this fund is not limited to Republicans or Trump supporters,鈥� said the message on May 23.
Democrats see opportunity in Trump鈥檚 struggles
Republicans began Trump鈥檚 second presidency with a 220-215 advantage in the House. They鈥檝e boosted their chances to hold the majority by redrawing congressional maps in several Republican-run states. But Democrats are still confident they can flip enough seats to reclaim a majority.
Republicans have a more significant 53-47 advantage in the Senate. However, leaders of both parties agree that control of the chamber is in play. Some Republicans blame Trump for backing candidates such as Paxton, who has faced years of scandals and could prove more vulnerable against Democratic nominee James Talarico.
Trump hails Paxton as a 鈥渢rue MAGA warrior.鈥� But the state attorney general also carries the weight of a and disclosure of marital infidelity. He was indicted and impeached, but survived efforts to remove him from office and was reelected twice during the investigation. However, he ultimately agreed to pay $300,000 in restitution to avoid a felony trial.
Paxton’s baggage was enough that Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, which backed Cornyn, accused him of 鈥渞epulsive and disgusting鈥� behavior and quoted his ex-wife saying she filed for divorce 鈥渙n biblical grounds.鈥�
Viet Shelton, a spokesman for House Democrats鈥� campaign committee, pointed to Trump鈥檚 redistricting push as proof he understands his party鈥檚 tenuous hold on the House majority.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e given up on trying to win over voters fair and square, so they鈥檙e resorting to rigging the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression,鈥� Shelton said.
Democrats plan to feature Trump’s comments on the economy in advertising this fall, as well as more specific local concerns 鈥� even in places the president carried by double digits in 2024.
In U.S. House districts in Iowa, for example, that means emphasizing how tariffs have affected the farm economy and how the war in Iran has increased the prices of diesel fuel and fertilizer. In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, that means talking about how Trump鈥檚 immigration crackdown has roiled the local economy in Latino communities.
Republicans are frustrated behind closed doors
Republican strategists are worried by Trump鈥檚 lack of focus on the economy 鈥� and the lack of transparency from Trump鈥檚 team about how it plans to deploy its massive campaign accounts.
The pro-Trump super PAC known as held more than $356 million at the end of April. Yet many Republican strategists say they鈥檝e received no clear indication of how, where and when Trump鈥檚 team plans to spend the money, according to several operatives who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
They see one bright spot in James Blair, Trump’s political general, leaving the White House to focus on the midterms.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the president鈥檚 strategy and confidence about the midterms.
Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Trump 鈥減uts House Republicans in the strongest possible position to defy history and win in November.鈥�
Of course, a candidate must win the Republican nomination to even be around for the fall campaign.
鈥淭he president has chosen to be aggressive in endorsing candidates he believes are the best advocates for his agenda and have been loyal to him,鈥� Republican campaign veteran Chip Lake said.
Lake is leading an independent expenditure effort on behalf of Georgia Republican Burt Jones, the Trump-endorsed candidate in a June 16 primary runoff for governor.
鈥淚t鈥檚 difficult, if not impossible,鈥� Lake said, 鈥渢o win a primary in today鈥檚 environment if the president is working against you.鈥�
___ Barrow reported from Atlanta. Peoples reported from New York.
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